Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of August 3

       

August 3

       

PMI Manufacturing Index - July

51.3

51.3

   

ISM (Mfg) - July

53.6

52.6

53.6

 
         

Construction Spending - June

1.0%

-2.1

1.0

 
         

Auto Sales* - July

13.8M

13.0

   

Car Sales

3.3

2.9

   

Truck Sales

10.5

10.0

   
         

August 4

       

Factory Orders - June

4.9%

8.0

5.0

 

Durable Goods Orders

7.3

15.7

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

3.0

2.0

   
         

August 5

       

ADP Employment Report - July

2400K

2369.000

1500

 
         

International Trade - June

-$50.0B

-54.6

-50.3

 

ISM Services - July

55.0

57.1

   
         

August 6

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

1434K

1434

1400

 
         

August 7

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

2400K

4800

1650

 

Private

2400

4767

1518

 

Manufacturing

300

356

280

 

Unemployment

10.3%

11.1

10.5

 

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.5

34.4

 

Average Hourly Earnings

-0.4%

-1.2

-0.5

 
         

Wholesale Inventories - June

-2.0%

-2.0

-2.0

 

Consumer Credit - June

$11.0B

-18.2

10.0

 
         

Week of August 10

       

August 10

       

JOLTS - June

5.500M

5.397

   
         

August 11

       

Producer Price Index - July

0.3%

-0.2

   

PPI less food energy and trade services

0.2

0.3

   
         

August 12

       

Consumer Price Index - July

0.3%

0.6

   

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

   
         

Treasury Budget - July

-$380B

-864.1

   
         

August 13

       

Export Prices -July

0.2%

1.4

   

Import Prices

0.2

1.4

   
         

August 14

       

Retail Sales - July

1.0%

7.5

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

1.0

7.3

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

6.7

   
         

Productivity - Q2 (p)

-3.5%

-0.9

   

Unit Labor Costs

6.5

5.1

   
         

Industrial Production - July

3.0%

5.4

   

Manufacturing

3.0

7.2

   

Capacity Utilization

71.0

68.6

   
         

Business Inventories - June

-1.2%

-2.3

   
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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