Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 3 And 10
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
||||
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
||
Week of August 3 |
||||
August 3 |
||||
PMI Manufacturing Index - July |
51.3 |
51.3 |
||
ISM (Mfg) - July |
53.6 |
52.6 |
53.6 |
|
Construction Spending - June |
1.0% |
-2.1 |
1.0 |
|
Auto Sales* - July |
13.8M |
13.0 |
||
Car Sales |
3.3 |
2.9 |
||
Truck Sales |
10.5 |
10.0 |
||
August 4 |
||||
Factory Orders - June |
4.9% |
8.0 |
5.0 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
7.3 |
15.7 |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
3.0 |
2.0 |
||
August 5 |
||||
ADP Employment Report - July |
2400K |
2369.000 |
1500 |
|
International Trade - June |
-$50.0B |
-54.6 |
-50.3 |
|
ISM Services - July |
55.0 |
57.1 |
||
August 6 |
||||
Initial Unemployment Claims |
1434K |
1434 |
1400 |
|
August 7 |
||||
Nonfarm Payrolls - July |
2400K |
4800 |
1650 |
|
Private |
2400 |
4767 |
1518 |
|
Manufacturing |
300 |
356 |
280 |
|
Unemployment |
10.3% |
11.1 |
10.5 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
-0.4% |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
|
Wholesale Inventories - June |
-2.0% |
-2.0 |
-2.0 |
|
Consumer Credit - June |
$11.0B |
-18.2 |
10.0 |
|
Week of August 10 |
||||
August 10 |
||||
JOLTS - June |
5.500M |
5.397 |
||
August 11 |
||||
Producer Price Index - July |
0.3% |
-0.2 |
||
PPI less food energy and trade services |
0.2 |
0.3 |
||
August 12 |
||||
Consumer Price Index - July |
0.3% |
0.6 |
||
CPI Core |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
Treasury Budget - July |
-$380B |
-864.1 |
||
August 13 |
||||
Export Prices -July |
0.2% |
1.4 |
||
Import Prices |
0.2 |
1.4 |
||
August 14 |
||||
Retail Sales - July |
1.0% |
7.5 |
||
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
1.0 |
7.3 |
||
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
0.5 |
6.7 |
||
Productivity - Q2 (p) |
-3.5% |
-0.9 |
||
Unit Labor Costs |
6.5 |
5.1 |
||
Industrial Production - July |
3.0% |
5.4 |
||
Manufacturing |
3.0 |
7.2 |
||
Capacity Utilization |
71.0 |
68.6 |
||
Business Inventories - June |
-1.2% |
-2.3 |
||
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
more