Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 29 And May 6
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of April 29 |
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April 29 |
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Personal Income - March |
0.4% |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
Personal Spending - February |
0.5 |
0.1 |
||
Personal Spending - March |
0.7 |
0.7 |
||
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey |
11.0 |
8.3 |
||
April 30 |
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Employment Cost Index - Q2 |
0.8% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - February |
||||
Twenty City M/M |
0.0% |
-0.2 |
||
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
2.8 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
|
Chicago PMI - April |
59.7 |
58.7 |
59.0 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
127.1 |
124.1 |
126.0 |
|
Pending Home Sale Index - March |
102.4 |
101.9 |
102.5 |
|
May 1 |
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ADP Employment Report - April |
180K |
129 |
180 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - April |
55.5 |
55.3 |
55.0 |
|
ISM Prices |
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Construction Spending - March |
0.2% |
1.0 |
0.2 |
|
FMOC Announcement |
2.375% |
2.375 |
2.375 |
|
May 2 |
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Initial Jobless Claims |
210K |
230 |
215 |
|
Productivity - Q1 (p) |
1.8% |
1.9 |
1.4 |
|
Unit Labor Costs |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2 |
|
Factory Orders - March |
1.6% |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
2.7 |
-1.6 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.5 |
0.6 |
||
May 3 |
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International Trade in Goods - March |
-75.9B |
-70.9 |
-75.4 |
|
Wholesale Inventories (a) |
0.3% |
0.2 |
||
Nonfarm Payrolls - April |
185K |
196 |
180 |
|
Private |
175 |
182 |
172.5 |
|
Manufacturing |
12 |
-6 |
10 |
|
Unemployment |
3.8% |
3.8 |
3.8 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
ISM Services - April |
57.1 |
56.1 |
57.2 |
|
Week of May 6 |
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May 7 |
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JOLTS |
7.000M |
7.087 |
||
Consumer Credit |
$17.0M |
15.2 |
||
May 9 |
||||
Producer Price Index - April |
0.2% |
0.6 |
||
PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.2 |
0.4 |
||
International Trade - March |
-$54.2B |
-49.4 |
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May 10 |
||||
Consumer Price Index - April |
0.4% |
0.4 |
||
Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.1 |
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Treasury Budget - April |
$215.0B |
-146.9 |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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