Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 19 And 26

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   

 

 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

 

Week of April 19

     

 

 

April 22

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

625K

576

625

 

 

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - March

0.50

-1.09

 

 

 

Leading Indicators - March

0.8%

0.2

0.9

 

 

Existing Home Sales - March

6.254M

6.220

6.180

 

 
       

 

 

April 23

     

 

 

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

60

59.1

60.5

 

 

PMI Services Flash Index

60.0

60.4

61.7

 

 
       

 

 

New Home Sales - March

862K

775

886

 

 
       

 

 

Week of April 26

     

 

 

April 26

     

 

 

Durable Goods Orders - March

2.5%

-0.8

1.9

 

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

25.0

28.9

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 27

     

 

 

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

     

 

 

Twenty City M/M

1.1%

0.9

 

 

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

1.1

1.2

 

 

 

Twenty City Y/Y

11.8

11.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

FHFA Housing Price Index - February

0.9%

1.0

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence

110.5

109.7

111.7

 

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

17

17

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 28

     

 

 

International Trade - March (a)

-$87.6B

-86.7

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories - March (a)

0.7%

0.6

 

 

 

FMOC

0.125%

0.125

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 29

     

 

 

GDP - Q1 (a)

5.7%

4.3

5.7

 

 

Pending Home Sale Index - March

114.0

110.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 30

     

 

 

Employment Cost Index - Q1

0.6%

0.7

0.8

 

 

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.5

 

 

 
       

 

 

Personal Income - March

22.0%

-7.1

20

 

 

Personal Spending - February

3.0

-1.0

4.0

 

 

PCE Price Index

0.4%

0.2

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index

0.2

0.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

Chicago PMI - April

63.00

66.3

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - April (r)

86.5

86.5

 

 

 
       

 

 
 
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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