Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 12 And 19

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   

 

 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

 
       

 

 

Week of April 12

     

 

 

April 12

     

 

 

Treasury Budget - March

-$780.0B

-296.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 13

     

 

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - March

98.0

95.8

 

 

 
       

 

 

Consumer Price Index - March

0.4%

0.4%

0.5

 

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

 

 

Energy

     

 

 
       

 

 

April 14

     

 

 

Export Prices - March

1.0%

1.6

1.0

 

 

Import Prices

0.9

1.3

0.9

 

 

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

0.5

0.5

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 15

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

725K

744

700

 

 
       

 

 

Retail Sales - March

3.5%

-3.0

5.5

 

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

3.2

-2.7

5.0

 

 

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

2.7

-3.3

 

 

 

Retail Sales, Autos

     

 

 
       

 

 

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

18.0

17.4

20.0

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

43.0

51.8

44.5

 

 
       

 

 

Industrial Production - March

3.5%

-2.2

2.8

 

 

Manufacturing

4.0

-3.1

3.5

 

 

Capacity Utilization

77.0

73.8

75.6

 

 
       

 

 

Business Inventories - February

0.5%

0.3

0.5

 

 

NAHB Index - April

84

82

83

 

 
       

 

 

April 16

     

 

 

Housing Starts - March

1.585M

1.421

1.600

 

 

Building Permits

1.750

1.682

1.750

 

 
       

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - April (p)

88.0

84.9

89.0

 

 
       

 

 

Week of April 19

     

 

 

April 22

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

     

 

 

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - March

0.50

-1.09

 

 

 

Leading Indicators - March

0.6%

0.2

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales - March

6.254M

6.220

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 23

     

 

 

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

60

59.1

 

 

 

PMI Services Flash Index

60.0

60.4

 

 

 
       

 

 

New Home Sales - March

862K

775

 

 

 
       

 

 
 
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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