Economic Data Forecast For The Weeks Of May 3 And 10
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of May 3 | |||
| May 3 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - April | 60.6 | 60.6 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - April | 65.2 | 64.7 | 65.0 |
| Construction Spending - March | 2.0% | -0.8 | 2.0 |
| Auto Sales* - April | 17.5M | 17.8 | |
| Car Sales | 4.0 | 4.2 | |
| Truck Sales | 13.5 | 13.5 | |
| May 4 | |||
| International Trade - March | -$73.2B | -71.1 | -74.3 |
| Factory Orders - March | 1.3% | -0.8 | 1.3 |
| ISM Services - April | 64.2 | 63.7 | 64.3 |
| May 5 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - April | 525K | 517 | 815 |
| PMI Services Index | 63.1 | 63.1 | |
| May 6 | |||
| Initial Jobless Claims | 600K | 553 | 540 |
| Productivity - Q1 (p) | 2.2% | -4.2 | 4.2 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.4 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| May 7 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - April | 875K | 916 | 978 |
| Private | 860 | 780 | 880 |
| Manufacturing | 85 | 53 | 58 |
| Unemployment | 5.7% | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| Average Workweek | 34.9HR | 34.9 | 34.9 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Wholesale Inventories - March | 1.4% | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Consumer Credit - March | $14.0B | 27.6 | 20 |
| Week of May 11 | |||
| May 11 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism - April | 100.0 | 98.2 | |
| JOLTS -March | 7.500M | 7.367 | |
| May 12 | |||
| Consumer Price Index - April | 0.2% | 0.6 | |
| Core CPI | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Treasury Budget - April | -$40.0B | -659.6 | |
| May 13 | |||
| Producer Price Index - April | 0.2% | 1.0 | |
| PPI less food, energy and trade services | 0.2 | 0.6 | |
| May 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - April | 0.2% | 9.8 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.2 | 8.4 | |
| Retail Sales,ex autos and gas | 0.3 | 8.2 | |
| Export Prices - April | 0.6% | 2.1 | |
| Import Prices | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | 0.6 | 0.9 | |
| Industrial Production - April | 3.5% | 1.4 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 76.9 | 74.4 | |
| Manufacturing | 3.0 | 2.7 | |
| Business Inventories - March | 0.4% | 0.5 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p) | 90.2 | 88.3 | |
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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