E Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 28 And Feb. 4

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of January 29

       

January 28

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.15

0.22

0.15

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-5.1

-5.1

-4.6

 
         

January 29

       

Consumer Confidence

128.1

128.1

124.8

 
         

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

       

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.0

0.2

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.4

0.3

 

Twenty City Y/Y

4.8

5.0

4.9

 
         

January 30

       

ADP Employment Survey - January

175

271

167

 
         

GDP - Q4 (a)

2.8%

3.4

2.6

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.8

1.8

1.8

 
         

Pending Home Sales - December

101.8

101.4

101.5

 

FMOC

2.375%

2.375

2.375

 
         

January 31

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

199

211

 
         

Personal Income - December

0.4%

0.2

0.4

 

Personal Spending

0.2

0.4

0.3

 
         

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.8%

0.8

0.8

 

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

3.0

2.8

   
         

Chicago PMI - January

62.5

65.4

62.5

 
         

February 1

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

175K

312

158

 

Private

175

301

155

 

Manufacturing

20

32

15

 

Unemployment

3.8%

3.9

3.9

 

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34,5

34.5

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

0.3

 
         

Auto Sales* - January

17.4M

17.5

17.2

 

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

       
         
         

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

 

54.9

   

ISM (Mfg) - January

54.1

54.1

54.0

 
         

Construction Spending - January

0.2%

 

0.2

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

91.0

90.7

91.4

 
         
         

Week of February 4

       

February 5

       

ISM Services - January

57.6

57.6

   
         

February 6

       

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.6%

2.3

   

Unit Labor Cost

1.9

0.9

   
         

February 7

       

Consumer Credit - December

$18.0B

22.1

   
         
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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