Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 29

January 28

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.15

0.22

0.15

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-5.1

-5.1

-4.6

January 29

Consumer Confidence

128.1

128.1

124.8

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.0

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.4

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

4.8

5.0

4.9

January 30

ADP Employment Survey - January

175

271

167

GDP - Q4 (a)

2.8%

3.4

2.6

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.8

1.8

1.8

Pending Home Sales - December

101.8

101.4

101.5

FMOC

2.375%

2.375

2.375

January 31

Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

199

211

Personal Income - December

0.4%

0.2

0.4

Personal Spending

0.2

0.4

0.3

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.8%

0.8

0.8

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

3.0

2.8

Chicago PMI - January

62.5

65.4

62.5

February 1

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

175K

312

158

Private

175

301

155

Manufacturing

20

32

15

Unemployment

3.8%

3.9

3.9

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34,5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

0.3

Auto Sales* - January

17.4M

17.5

17.2

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

54.9

ISM (Mfg) - January

54.1

54.1

54.0

Construction Spending - January

0.2%

0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

91.0

90.7

91.4

Week of February 4

February 5

ISM Services - January

57.6

57.6

February 6

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.6%

2.3

Unit Labor Cost

1.9

0.9

February 7

Consumer Credit - December

$18.0B

22.1