Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 24 And 31

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 24

       

December 24

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November

0.19

0.24

0.19

 
         

December 26

       

S&P Case/Shiller Index - October

       

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.0

0.1

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.3

0.4

 

Twenty City Y/Y

4.9

5.1

5.0

 
         

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

14

14

14

 
         

December 27

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

214K

214

217

 

FHFA Housing Price Index - Oct

0.1%

0.2

0.2

 

New Home Sales - November

555M

544.0

560

 

Consumer Confidence

135.0

135.7

134.0

 
         

December 28

       

International Trade in Goods - November

-73.3

-77.2

-75.7

 

Wholesale Inventories (a) - November

0.3%

0.8

0.3

 

Pending Home Sale Index - November

103.0

102.1

103.6

 
         
         

Week of December 31

       

December 31

       

Chicago PMI

62.0

66.4

   

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

17.6

17.6

   
         

January 2

       

PMI Manufacturing Index - December

53.9

53.9

   

ADP Employment - December

175

227

   
         

January 3

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

ISM (Mfg) - December

58.3

59.3

   

Construction Spending - December

0.3%

-0.1

   
         

Auto Sales* - December

17.3M

17.4

   

Car Sales

5.2

5.2

   

Truck Sales

12.1

12.2

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

       
         

January 4

       

PMI Services Index - December

53.4

53.4

   
         

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

180K

155

   

Private

175

161

   

Manufacturing

23

27

   

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

   

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.4

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.2

   

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

   

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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