Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 17 And 24

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 17

       

December 17

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

21.0

23.3

21.0

 

NAHB Index

62

60

61

 
         

December 18

       

Housing Starts - November

1.220M

1.228

1.222

 

Building Permits

1.265

1.265

1.258

 
         

December 19

       

Current Account - Q3

-$123.2B

-101.5

-124.0

 

Existing Home Sales - November

5.150M

5.220

5.190

 

FMOC

2.375%

2.215

2.375

 
         

December 20

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

220

204

221

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

16.0

12.9

17.5

 

Leading Indicators - Nobember

0.0%

0.1

0.0

 
         

December 21

       

Durable Goods Orders - November

1.5%

-4.3

1.5

 
         

GDP - Q3 (f)

3.5%

3.5

3.5

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.7

1.7

1.7

 
         

Personal Income - November

0.3%

0.5

0.3

 

Personal Spending

0.3

0.6

0.3

 
         

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)

97.5

97.5

97.5

 
         

Week of December 24

       

December 24

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November

0.24

0.24

   
         

December 26

       

S&P Case/Shiller Index - October

       

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.0

   

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.3

   

Twenty City Y/Y

4.9

5.1

   
         

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

14

   
         

December 27

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

FHFA Housing Price Index - Oct

0.2%

0.2

   

New Home Sales - November

550M

544.0

   

Consumer Confidence

135.0

135.7

   
         

December 28

       

International Trade in Goods - November

-73.3

-77.2

   

Wholesale Inventories (a) - November

0.3%

0.8

   

Pending Home Sale Index - November

101.5

102.1

   

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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