Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 10 And 17

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 10

       

December 10

       

JOLTS-October

6.900M

7.009

7.000

 
         

December 11

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

107.0

107.4

107.0

 
         

Producer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.6

0.0

 

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2%

0.2

0.2

 
         

December 12

       

Consumer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.3

0.0

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

 
         

Treasury Budget - November

-$185.0B

-100.5

-165.0

 
         

December 13

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

227K

231

238

 
         

Export Prices - November

-0.3%

0.4

0.1

 

Import Prices

-1.7

0.5

-0.7

 
         

December 14

       

Retail Sales - November

0.2%

0.8

0.1

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

0.7

0.2

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

0.3

0.4

 
         

Industrial Production - November

0.3%

0.3

0.3

 

Capacity Utilization

78.5

78.5

78.5

 

Manufacturing

0..3

0.3

0.3

 
         

Business Inventories - October

0.6%

0.3

0.5

 
         

Week of December 17

       

December 17

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

21.0

23.3

21.25

 

NAHB Index

62

60

60

 
         

December 18

       

Housing Starts - November

1.218M

1.228

1.231

 

Building Permits

1.265

1.265

1.265

 
         

December 19

       

Current Account - Q3

-$123.2B

-101.5

-122.2

 

Existing Home Sales - November

5.150M

5.220

5.20

 

FMOC

2.375%

2.215

   
         

December 20

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

Philadelphia Fed Survey

15.0

12.9

11.9

 

Leading Indicators - November

0.1%

0.1

0.1

 
         

December 21

       

Durable Goods Orders - November

1.5%

-4.3

1.4

 
         

GDP - Q3 (f)

3.5%

3.5

3.5

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.7

1.7

   
         

Personal Income - November

0.3%

0.5

0.4

 

Personal Spending

0.3

0.6

0.3

 
         

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)

97.5

97.5

97.0

 
         

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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