Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 10 And 17
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of December 10 |
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December 10 |
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JOLTS-October |
6.900M |
7.009 |
7.000 |
|
December 11 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November |
107.0 |
107.4 |
107.0 |
|
Producer Price Index - November |
0.1% |
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
December 12 |
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Consumer Price Index - November |
0.1% |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Treasury Budget - November |
-$185.0B |
-100.5 |
-165.0 |
|
December 13 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
227K |
231 |
238 |
|
Export Prices - November |
-0.3% |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
Import Prices |
-1.7 |
0.5 |
-0.7 |
|
December 14 |
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Retail Sales - November |
0.2% |
0.8 |
0.1 |
|
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
|
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
Industrial Production - November |
0.3% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Capacity Utilization |
78.5 |
78.5 |
78.5 |
|
Manufacturing |
0..3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Business Inventories - October |
0.6% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
Week of December 17 |
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December 17 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
21.0 |
23.3 |
21.25 |
|
NAHB Index |
62 |
60 |
60 |
|
December 18 |
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Housing Starts - November |
1.218M |
1.228 |
1.231 |
|
Building Permits |
1.265 |
1.265 |
1.265 |
|
December 19 |
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Current Account - Q3 |
-$123.2B |
-101.5 |
-122.2 |
|
Existing Home Sales - November |
5.150M |
5.220 |
5.20 |
|
FMOC |
2.375% |
2.215 |
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December 20 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
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Philadelphia Fed Survey |
15.0 |
12.9 |
11.9 |
|
Leading Indicators - November |
0.1% |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
December 21 |
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Durable Goods Orders - November |
1.5% |
-4.3 |
1.4 |
|
GDP - Q3 (f) |
3.5% |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
1.7 |
1.7 |
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Personal Income - November |
0.3% |
0.5 |
0.4 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r) |
97.5 |
97.5 |
97.0 |
|
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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