Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Dec. 31 And Jan. 7

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 31

       

December 31

       

Chicago PMI

62.0

66.4

62.4

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

17.6

17.6

17.0

 
         

January 2

       

PMI Manufacturing Index - December

53.9

53.9

53.9

 

ADP Employment - December

175

227

175

 
         

January 3

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

217

213

 
         

ISM (Mfg) - December

58.3

59.3

58.0

 

ISM Prices

       
         

Construction Spending - December

0.3%

-0.1

0.3

 
         

Auto Sales* - December

17.3M

17.4

17.2

 

Car Sales

5.2

5.2

   

Truck Sales

12.1

12.2

   
         

January 4

       

PMI Services Index - December

53.4

53.4

53.4

 
         

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

180K

155

180

 

Private

175

161

175

 

Manufacturing

18

27

17

 

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

3.7

 

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.4

34.5

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.2

0.3

 
         

Week of January 7

       

January 7

       

Factory Orders - November

0.5%

-2.1

0.8

 

Durable Goods Orders

0.8

-4.3

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.3

   
         

ISM Services - December

60.3

60.7

60.0

 
         

January 8

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Dec

102.0

104.8

   

International Trade - November

-$51.8

-55.5

-52.5

 

JOLTS - November

 

7.079

   

Consumer Credit - November

$20.0B

25.4

19.6

 
         
         

January 11

       

Consumer Price Index - December

0.0%

0.0

0.0

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

 
         

Treasury Budget - December

$0.0b

-204.9

   
         

 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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