Don't Dismiss Warren Buffett

It is becoming quite the thing to talk down Warren Buffett. In fact he is still showing his smarts, as I told members earlier in the week.

Today's stock market is teetering between gains and losses because of the highest level of new coronavirus infections year to date. The real challenge is that countries lauded for their handling of the pandemic, like Germany and New Zealand, are seeing new cases in trouble spots like schools and slaughterhouses. Asian markets fell in sympathy with the Antipodes.

Rather unfortunately, my broker published a BofA Analytics note headed “V is for very good data” which naturally caused this V-named writer to cheer. Alas it is unclear if this will be true.

For this German-speaker, the outcome of the Wirecard investigation that the Philippines accounts holding the missing euros 2.1 bn “don't exist” is a sign of how risky German stocks can be. During the Financial Times' coverage of the matter, it was periodically ordered to stop publishing negative information because this was triggering short sales of the stock. Had the authorities allowed negative articles, the debacle last week could have been avoided by German investors who were out of the loop. German rules protecting listed companies have a perverse effect on their governance.

The Berlin authorities rushed to rescue Lufthansa (DLAKY) with $10 billion-plus for a coronavirus bailout opposed by its largest shareholder, Heinz Hermann Thiele, who opposes government taking a stake in the airline. He wants loans rather than stock buys, and to allow 22,000 job cuts. To prevent a premature bankruptcy, Lufthansa will pay employees their salaries in advance.

This is not a purely German deal, as Lufthansa shareholders, besides Thiele with 15%, include Swiss, Austrian, and Brussels airlines. The stock came back to market 3.4% down after it was chopped from the DAX30 for being too cheap. This took down other airlines.

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, bailed out of airline stocks in April on fear of the Covid-19 impact on business, for which he has been criticized heavily, including by President Trump on June 5. Buffett sold American, Delta, Southwest, and United Airlines stock for over $4 bn.

Berkshire Hathaway for decades avoided airline shares, and only got into this sector 4 1/2 years ago because his analysts nagged Buffett. Now that American Airlines is raising another $3.5 bn in stock, straight and convertible debt, and bank loans, I think Buffett has been proven right.

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Zack Edwards 3 years ago Member's comment

very good information on German stocks

Anne Barry 3 years ago Member's comment

Agreed.

Wannabe Warren 3 years ago Member's comment

#Buffett knows his stuff. Anyone who disagrees is either wrong or jealous!