This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for January. The latest general business activity index came in at -0.2, up 3.0 from -3.2 in December. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Growth in Texas factory activity accelerated in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose seven points to 10.5, suggesting stronger output growth than last month.

Perceptions of broader business conditions were largely unchanged in January. The general business activity index came in at zero, with three-fourths of respondents noting no change this month and the rest split between improved and worsened activity. The January company outlook index reading was 1.9, with 78 percent of respondents noting no change in their outlooks. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks edged down further to 2.7, a 20-month low.

Expectations regarding future business conditions were slightly more optimistic in January. The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook edged up to 7.6 and 15.6, respectively. Most other indexes for future manufacturing activity also pushed a bit further into positive territory.

Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. The Dallas Fed on the TMOS importance:

Texas is important to the nation’s manufacturing output. The state produced $159 billion in manufactured goods in 2008, roughly 9.5 percent of the country’s manufacturing output. Texas ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

Texas turns out a large share of the country’s production of petroleum and coal products, reflecting the significance of the region’s refining industry. Texas also produces over 10 percent of the nation’s computer and electronics products and nonmetallic mineral products, such as brick, glass and cement.

Here is a snapshot of the complete TMOS.

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The next chart is an overlay of the General Business Activity Index and the Future Outlook Index — the outlook six months ahead.

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For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

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Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

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Here is the same chart including the average of the five for the latest month with complete data.

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