Taper Smoke And Mirrors

Gold and Miners Long-Term

gold and copper to 10-year Treasuries yield

The copper to 10-year Treasury yield isn‘t breaking lower, and neither is gold. The stage is set for the yellow metal (and silver naturally too) to catch up and start outperforming the commodities, especially in the 2H of 2021.

gold and miners to gold weekly

The miners to gold ratio‘s posture is curious to say the least. Is it a fake breakdown along the late Mar lines, or it it attempting to lead lower in earnest? The 2018 and 2019 gyrations are more applicable than the uniquely deflationary corona crash in my view – but the miners need to turn higher and lead relatively shortly to confirm.

Crude Oil

crude oil

Crude oil quite steeply declined on Friday, but the daily downswing doesn‘t have the characteristics of a reversal. The post-correction pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, and black gold is like to return to scoring gains shortly.

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Such was the Bitcoin chart on Sunday when I tweeted about this go long opportunity. Since then, prices have risen to almost $59,000 as we speak. The uptrend is reasserting itself, but might take a while longer before the Bollinger Bands‘ upper border is reached.

Summary

The S&P 500 is probably almost done meeting headwinds, and the risk-on trades are likely to return before too long – the top of this bull market is still far away.

Gold and miners need to prove themselves – especially the miners. With gold holding $1,760 and miners rebounding, the benefit of the doubt given to the precious metals upswing, would be justified – this precious metals upleg is quite well established already.

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