Bullish view

• Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3670.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3200.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3600.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The GBP/USD exchange rate is hovering at a crucial resistance level after data revealed the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on consumer confidence. It was trading at 1.3400 on Wednesday, a few points below the year-to-date high of 1.3430 ahead of more data from the United States.
 

US GDP and PCE data ahead

The GBP/USD pair wavered after the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data raised the possibility of a recession in the US. The data showed that confidence dropped from 93.9 in March to 86 this month. It has dropped by over 20 points in the last three months, raising the possibility that consumer spending will drop this year, which will in turn cause a recession.

Most consumers are being concerned about inflation, which is expected to keep rising because of Donald Trump’s tariffs. For example, companies like Shein and Temu have already started hiking prices after the end of ‘de minimis’, a rule that allowed products sold by their platforms to enter the US tax free.

The White House had to intervene to prevent Amazon, the biggest e-commerce platform in the country to avoid displaying price increases caused by Trump’s tariffs. That is a sign that officials in the Trump administration know that tariffs will lead to higher prices.

The GBP/USD pair will next react to some key macro data from the United States. The Bureau of Economic Affairs will publish the latest GDP data estimate for the first quarter.

Economists expect the data to show that the economy slowed in the fourth quarter. They expect the data to show that the economy grew by 0.4% in Q1 after expanding by 2.4% in Q4.

The other top data to watch will be the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation data.

GBP/USD technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate rose is hovering at the important resistance point at 1.3400, up by 10% above the lowest level this year. This price coincides with the Weak, Stop & Reverse point of the Murret Math Lines.

The pair formed a golden cross in March as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. It has also formed a cup and handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign.

Therefore, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout, potentially to the ultimate resistance point at 1.3671. A drop below the strong pivot release point at 1.3183 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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