Forex Today: U.S. Dollar Up On Jobs Forecast

  • The global stock market rally has begun to falter, with major Asian indices down by approximately 1% today.

Currency, Finance, A Wealth Of, Savings

  • In the Forex market, the U.S. dollar is the strongest major currency after the ADP non-farm employment payrolls forecast printed a prediction that 174K new jobs have been created, compared to the consensus expectation of 48k. The stronger than expected economic data is paradoxically making a stimulus agreement between President Biden and Senate Republicans harder to reach (UUP).
  • So far today, the British pound (FXB) and the Japanese yen (FXY) are the weakest major currencies. Today will see a monthly policy release by the Bank of England.
  • The USD/JPY currency pair has closed at new 50-day highs over the past few days, suggesting odds in favor of yet higher prices.
  • Concerns over new coronavirus mutations remain strong, as several more variants seem to have developed which are more infectious and perhaps lethal too, and it is not known whether some of them may have resistance to the first generation of vaccines which are currently being rolled out. There is particular concern over the South African variant, although Moderna (MRNA) announced last week that its vaccine should be effective against it.
  • Global coronavirus deaths have increased dramatically since early October to reach a level 107% higher than the peak last April.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 104.9 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.17%. The number of confirmed new cases globally has been falling quite strongly over the past two weeks, so there are signs the current heavy global wave may have peaked.
  • The fastest progression in terms of immunizing a population against the coronavirus has been in Israel, which has already administered a first shot of the Pfizer vaccine to 35% of its entire population (including more than 81% of the over-60s) and a second dose to 20%. The U.A.E. ranks second, having now given 35 vaccines per 100 of its population. For most of the world, a vaccine remains distant: only 8 countries have vaccinated more than 5% of their population so far. Progress remains slow in the hard-hit European Union.
  • Last week saw daily coronavirus deaths hit a new global peak.
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Albania, Bahrain, Cuba, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Greece, Honduras, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jamaica, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Moldova, Senegal, Spain, Sweden, and Thailand.

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