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Markets will be watching the result of a closely contested Federal election in Canada today, with the governing Liberal Party narrowly ahead in final opinion polls.

1. Today's major event is the Canadian election, with new Prime Minister Carney of the governing Liberal Party attempting to win a fresh term in his own right. After becoming extremely unpopular during Trudeau's premiership, the replacement of Trudeau by ex-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney pushed the Liberals back up into a lead in the opinion polls, which Polievre's Conservatives have been mostly unable to dent. However, final opinion polls have shown a narrowing of the lead to just 2 points as voting gets underway. Results are expected later tonight. The Canadian Dollar is doing little, and the Forex market in general has been very quiet today.

2. Stock markets are mixed so far today, with Asian indices ending Monday mostly higher, while major US indices in off-hours trading are showing minor declines.

3. The Forex market is very quiet. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a long-term bullish trend.

4. Bitcoin saw a firm recovery last week, in line with the general recoveries shown by most risk-on assets but has been unable to break above the key resistance level at $95,038 which continues to hold today. The longer this level survives tests from below, the more pivotal and tradable it will be come when we finally see either a breakout or a decisive bearish reversal.

5. Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura has denied reports that the US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a stronger Yen was "preferable". The Yen, like the entire Forex market, has hardly moved today anyway.

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