Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast For February 11 - 15

First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. One of the development scenarios, supported, however, by only 30% of experts, suggested a decline of the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. This is what happened: having lost about 130 points, the pair recorded the week low at the level of 1.1320.
    The reason for the strengthening of the dollar and, as a result, for the fall of the pair, was the growth of anti-risk sentiment due to increased pessimism in resolving the US-China trade conflict and not the most favorable expectations for economic growth in the Eurozone. Thus, the European Commission, talking about "significant risks", has substantially lowered its forecast for the GDP growth from 1.9% to 1.3% in 2019 and from 1.7% to 1.6% in 2020. Such an adjustment has significantly pressured the euro, making the market understand that it is not worth expecting an increase in interest rates this year;
  • GBP/USD. In unison with the European Commission, the Bank of England also declared that its previous forecasts were too optimistic, and the lack of clarity with Brexit is a burden for the country's economy. The Bank specialists expect the growth rate to be the lowest in the last 10 years, as a result of which the UK GDP forecast for 2019 has been lowered from 1.7% to 1.2%.
    The pound sank sharply on this negative news and, as 65% of the experts had expected, the pair reached 1.2850. Then it rose a little against the background of an article about possible progress in negotiations on the British exit from the EU and special conditions for Ireland, and then sank again and completed the five-day period at 1.2940;
  • USD/JPY. The majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, had expected strong fluctuations of the rate and the fall of the pair to the zone 108.00-108.55, after which it should return to the horizon 110.00. However, contrary to forecasts, the pair behaved very calmly, and the maximum amplitude of its oscillations did not exceed 60 points. For the third week in a row, time after time, the pair returns to the zone of 109.55-110.0 0. This time again, starting the week session at the level of 109.55, the pair completed it at the level of 109.75;
  • Cryptocurrencies. We divided the experts into two groups last week. The first is those who believe that the current calm is the calm before the storm. The second one thinks is that it is a lull before ... even more calm. All week, Bitcoin quotes were falling smoothly and quietly, reaching a low of $3,400 on Wednesday, February 6. Then a very sluggish “side” followed, and Friday afternoon it “jerked”: the BTC/USD rushed up, in a matter of hours adding about 12% and reaching the level of $3,800.
    Is this a precursor of a storm? If you look at the graph H1, of course it is. However, everything is not so impressive on the daily timeframe: the pair has just returned to the consolidation line (or Pivot Point), along which it has been moving for 11 weeks already, starting from the end of November 2018.
    The reason for the growth was an interview fragment published in Tweeter of one of the four SEC commissioners, Robert Jackson, who said that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may still allow the launch of Bitcoin-ETF funds.
    Following Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the rest of the top cryptocurrencies went up. The greatest growth was demonstrated by Litecoin (LTC/USD), adding at its maximum 40% and reaching the price of $46.0 0. Ethereum rose to the level of $124.70, and Ripple (XRP/USD) reached a height of $0.3250.
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