Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast For December 10-14

First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. Our forecast for relatively weak labor market data turned out to be 100% correct. ADP and ISM in the service sector were not pleasing either, and one of the key indicators, NonFarm Payrolls, fell from 237K to 155K, that is, by as much as 35%.
    The forecast regarding consolidation of the pair in the area of 1.1350 turned out to be correct as well: last week it switched to lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415 with Pivot Point in the area 1.1350-1.1360.
    The difference between the weekly high and low barely exceeded 100 points, although it seemed that there were quite a lot of important events during these days. These are the above-mentioned statistics on the US labor market, supplemented by a decrease in the country's GDP, and the OPEC meeting and Iran’s petroleum statement, and the arrest by the US law enforcement agencies of the financial director of Huawei Meng Wanzhou... But the pair reacted quite calmly to all this. The reason for this seems to be only one: the approach of Christmas, the time when the sharks of the market sum up their annual results and no longer want to make any sudden movements;
  • GBP/USD. This pair also behaved quite calmly, although with a slightly higher volatility: the swing of oscillations was about 180 points. The expected fall to 1.2600-1.2620 did not take place, and the pair, barely reaching 1.2655, turned around and left for Pivot Point of the week, ending the five-day period at 1.2725;
  • USD/JPY. Last week, expert opinions were equally divided: one half voted for the pair’s growth, the second one was for its fall. In this situation, we advised to move from weekly to longer-term forecast, and we were right. Here, the picture was already different: most analysts (65%), supported by graphical analysis, expected the yen to strengthen and the pair to decline to the 112.00 zone. This was what happened: having won back the losses of the previous two weeks, it reached the level of 112.20. The pair met the end of the trading session at the level of 112. 70, that is, in the same place where it was already trading in the middle of November;
  • Cryptocurrencies. There’s really nothing to say: the graphs vividly confirm that the worst predictions are coming true. 60% of experts predicted a further drop in Bitcoin, and on Friday evening, it recorded another annual low at around $3,275, having lost another 16% in seven days. Following the “reference” (now in quotes) cryptocurrency, the altcoins fell further down. Ethereum (ETH/USD) fell by 24% during the week, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 26%, and Ripple (XRP / USD) - by 18%.
    According to Ernst & Young, 86% of all coins are now trading significantly lower than the originally declared value, and the crypto market capitalization fell to $113 billion, having lost exactly 700 billion in 11 months (86%).
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