EUR/USD Long In Profit After Powell Reaffirmed Fed Policy Shift Trade Ideas

  • EUR/USD: long at 1.1320, take profit at 1.1470, stop-loss 1.1255
  • USD/CAD: short at 1.3350, take profit at 1.3010, stop-loss 1.3485
  • AUD/USD: long at 0.7145, take profit at 0.7350, stop-loss 0.7050
  • XAG/USD: long at 15.50, take profit at 16.50, stop-loss 15.00

Market Overview
In prepared testimony released in advance of a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Powell reaffirmed the policy shift made by the U.S. central bank in January, citing "crosscurrents and conflicting signals" that weakened the case for further rate increases and made an otherwise positive outlook less certain.

The Fed now estimates that GDP grew by slightly less than 3% in 2018. The U.S. government is scheduled on Thursday to release its fourth-quarter GDP report, which was delayed by the recent partial U.S. government shutdown.
Recent retail sales data were disappointing and some Fed officials have worried that inflation could slip, though Powell said the central bank still feels the pace of price increases will remain close to its 2% target after accounting for the temporary influence of lower oil prices.

Powell will also appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. The two hearings are part of the semi-annual rounds of testimony the Fed chief delivers to Congress each year. After raising rates four times in 2018, and anticipating further hikes in 2019, the Fed in January switched to a new "patient" stance as concerns about the global economy took root, and global markets voiced doubts about the U.S. recovery.

EUR/USD trades circa the 30-day moving average, which is now at 1.1363, a daily close above which will strengthen the underlying bullish outlook for the daily cloud base at 1.1393. The 1.1402 Fibo, a 50% retrace of the 1.1570 to 1.1234 (January to February) drop, is also in focus. We remain long at 1.1320 in anticipation for stronger gains through the above-mentioned 1.1402 Fibo level.

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