Euro Braces For Draghi Speech, USD May Fall On Local CPI Data

The Euro and US Dollar will be in for a tense 24 hours ahead as ECB President Mario Draghi prepares to speak in Frankfurt, Germany and global investors brace for the publication of US CPI data. The meeting in Europe will also include ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. US price growth data will be closely watched because of the impact it may have on Fed monetary policy.

At the last FOMC meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell said that the temporary lull in inflation was “transitory”. Meaning, if price growth data shows sufficient strength, it could further give impetus for the central bank to raise rates. However, in light of recent economic data, market participants are already betting that the Fed’s neutrality has been compromised, with expectations of a 78 percent probability of a cut by the July meeting.

Across the Atlantic, political risks in Europe continue to brew, namely Brexit and the ongoing budget dispute with Italy. The former continues to be a headline – and headache – risk that has the potential to disrupt regional and global financial markets. The latter situation continues to escalate, with Euro Area Finance Ministers meeting this week to discuss how to handle Rome’s budgetary ambitions and discussing the dreaded EDP.

Amid broader US Dollar weakness from increasing bets on a Fed rate cut, EUR/USD has jumped and broken through an 18-month descending resistance channel. Since May 31, the pair has climbed almost two percent. However, as risks in Europe continue to mount against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, a premium may be put on liquidity, and capital flow into the US Dollar may push EUR/USD below its previous ceiling.


Chart Showing EURUSD



In Asia trading hours, Chinese CPI failed to significantly move markets after data fell in-line with forecasts. However, after the benchmark CSI 300 Index opened, the New Zealand and Australian Dollars found themselves in a sea red. This was compounded by fears that US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability could jeopardize a trade deal with China against the backdrop of souring relations with Europe.

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