Daily Market Outlook - Tuesday, March 26

Stock Exchange, Courses, Shares, Trading, Forex

Image Source: Pixabay

On Tuesday, Asian stock markets are experiencing a mix of trading activity, influenced by the overall negative performance of Wall Street the previous day. Traders appear hesitant to make substantial moves as they await the release of important economic data, such as US inflation numbers on Friday. Most Asian markets ended lower on Monday. The US Fed has indicated a possibility of three rate cuts this year, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also anticipated to lower interest rates in the near future. Continuing from the declines in the last trading day, the Japanese stock market is slightly down in volatile trading on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225 has dropped below the 40.4K handle, influenced by the overall negative performance of Wall Street yesterday. The losses in index heavyweights and financial stocks are somewhat balanced out by gains in exporters and technology stocks.

Today's economic calendar lacks significant UK data, shifting the focus primarily to the United States. Monthly durable goods orders will offer insights into the factory sector's activity. Recent survey data has hinted at a potential leveling off in manufacturing activity, with the PMI index remaining above the 50 expansion threshold for the third consecutive month in March, albeit the ISM index still remains below 50. Durable goods orders, often seen as a leading indicator for the more cyclical segments of manufacturing, have predominantly indicated a continued decline in output. Much of this downturn can be attributed to the volatile transport sector, particularly Boeing orders. However, orders for other durable goods also saw declines in January and have slipped in three out of the last four months. A forecasted rise for February would signal a significant shift in activity. Market observers will closely monitor movements in US consumer confidence, which serve as indicators of future economic activity. Consumer confidence measures have exhibited volatility recently, with the Conference Board's indicator reaching its highest level since July last year in January but sharply declining in February. These fluctuations likely reflect uncertainty regarding the pace of inflation and interest rate adjustments. Some other indicators of consumer sentiment have suggested a decline in March, indicating a potential further decrease in the Conference Board's reading.

BREAKING HEADLINE - Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland collapses after being struck by a cargo ship. Reports of vehicles and construction workers on the bridge as it collapsed.

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • PBoC Extends Yuan Support As It Boosts Fix By Most Since January
  • Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Drops As Rate-Cut Prospects Dim
  • China Seen Delivering More RRR Cuts This Year To Boost Economy
  • Japan's Suzuki Says No Steps Ruled Out On FX Moves
  • Weak Yen Bets Seen In Japanese Skipping Hedges On Overseas Deals
  • New Zealand Joins UK And US In Condemning China-Linked Hacks
  • Israel Cancels Visit To Washington After US Abstains On UN Cease-Fire
  • Treasury Yields Inch Higher As Investors Look To Key Data In Week Ahead
  • Oil Prices Buoyed By Tight Supply Bets; Gaza Ceasefire In Focus

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0860 (EU2.26b), 1.0925 (EU1.86b), 1.0865 (EU1.57b)
  • USD/JPY: 151.25 ($652.3m), 151.00 ($528.9m), 147.50 ($380m)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6560 (AUD1.32b), 0.6545 (AUD1.24b), 0.6475 (AUD800m)
  • USD/BRL: 4.9500 ($570m), 4.7800 ($500m), 5.4725 ($360m)
  • USD/CNY: 7.1700 ($530m), 7.3000 ($357.6m)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2700 (GBP435m), 1.2690 (GBP425.5m)
  • NZD/USD: 0.6170 (NZD694.8m)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8750 (EU377.1m)
  • USD/MXN: 16.85 ($499.1m), 17.10 ($434.6m)
  • USD/KRW: 1328.55 ($425m)

CFTC Data As Of 22/03/24

  • Bitcoin net short position is -2,096 contracts
  • Euro net long position is 48,342 contracts
  • Japanese Yen net short position is -116,012 contracts
  • Swiss Franc posts net short position of -20,500 contracts
  • British Pound net long position is 53,200 contracts
  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 57,268 contracts to 416,777
  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 35.431 contracts to 949,421

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5200

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 5190 opens 5160
  • Primary support 5160
  • Primary objective is 5300

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish
  • Below 1.0840 opens 1.0795
  • Primary support 1.08
  • Primary objective is 1.10

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.27

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish
  • Below 1.2570 opens 1.2510
  • Primary support  is 1.2514
  • Primary objective 1.29

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 150.25

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Above 151 opens 152
  • Primary support 145.85
  • Primary objective is 153

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below .6570

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish
  • Below .6550 opens .6470
  • Primary support .6477
  • Primary objective is .6700

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 68300

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 64000 opens 59588
  • Primary support  is 52800
  • Primary objective is 78000

(Click on image to enlarge)

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