The US Dollar has received a fair amount of attention over the past year, as pandemic-spurred government stimulus and assistance programs and a softer stance from the Federal Reserve have weakened the buck.

And commodity bulls have benefited enjoying a broad rally over the past 12-18 months.

But not all is lost for King Dollar. And commodity bulls need to pay attention.

Looking at today’s long-term “monthly” chart, we can see that the US Dollar has been in a long-term rising trend marked by each (1). King Dollar recently bounced off the lower rising trend line and is now testing its short-term falling channel resistance at (2).

What the buck does here is important. Commodity bulls are hoping for a peak and turn lower from here. On the other hand, a breakout would signal a strengthening dollar and an emerging headwind for commodities.

(Click on image to enlarge)