Technical Analysis USDCNH : 2021-09-20

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On the daily timeframe, USDCNH: D1 broke up the resistance line of the short-term descending channel. A number of technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if USDCNH rises above the last high: 6.47. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible below the last lower fractal and the Parabolic signal: 6.42. After opening a pending order, move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (6.42) without activating the order (6.47), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

The US dollar index is growing ahead of the next Fed meeting. Will the USDCNH quotes continue to rise?

The Federal Reserve meeting will take place on September 22nd. A change in the rate of 0.25% is not expected, but investors do not exclude a reduction in the economic stimulus program through the purchase of bonds. Now it is $ 120 billion a month. An additional positive for the dollar was the unexpected rise in U.S. retail sales in August. In turn, the Chinese yuan came under pressure due to weak economic data in China. The rise in Industrial Production (+ 5.3%) and Retail Sales (+ 2%) in August was less than expected. Moreover, the growth in industrial production was minimal since July last year, and retail sales - since August. As a reminder, there will be a Mid-Autumn Festival weekend in China until Tuesday. An additional negative for the yuan may be the financial problems of China's largest construction company, China Evergrande Group.