Canadian Dollar (CAD) Spikes As Bank Of Canada (BoC) Tapers QE

QE TAPER: The Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged as expected. However, more importantly, the BoC tapered its QE purchases to C$ 3bln/week from the prior of C$ 4bln. Now while this would have been a near certainty a few weeks ago, the recent rise in Covid cases had cast doubt on this action taking place and hence the Canadian Dollar has jumped on the move. As a reminder, I highlighted earlier that risks to CAD had been asymmetrically tilted to the upside, given that fast money accounts were bearish CAD (long USD/CAD) heading into the meeting.

OUTLOOK: The BoC’s outlook was also notably hawkish with the central bank expecting economic slack to be absorbed in 2022 and as a result sees inflation returning sustainably to its target H2 2022, having previously expected to reach this in 2023.

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Spikes as Bank of Canada (BoC) Tapers QE

Source: BoC

MPR APRIL ASSUMPTIONS

Brent close to $65 (Prior $50)WTI close to $60 (Prior $50)WCS close to $50 (Prior $35)

MARKET REACTION

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Spikes as Bank of Canada (BoC) Tapers QE

Source: Refinitiv

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