Average Hourly Earnings Is Key For NFP Tonight

Stronger wage growth tonight would suggest the uptrend of labor data is sustained. This would support the cause for monetary tightening by the Fed. Short EUR/USD if wage growth surpasses forecast. 

It is almost widely expected that job growth will be slower this month after an extraordinary boost of 304k in January. Therefore, there is a very good chance of it being revised lower due to the government shutdown. 

Even though ADP reported weaker job growth, we feel that as long as job growth is more than 170k, it is actually good enough for the dollar bulls.

According to the Fed’s Beige Book, a number of districts reported a tighter labor market and notable shortage in workers. This could mean that wage growth could pick up in February.

We feel that unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 5.8%.

The reason why we are looking at a EUR/USD short if NFP were to surprise the market is due to the historical level that this pair is hovering around which is 1.1200. With a strong NFP, it could cause EUR/USD to break 1.1200 strongly, opening doors to 1.110 and 1.100 easily. 

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Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. ...

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