Aussie Drops – Is Risk About To Be Clobbered?

Market Drivers November 14, 2019
AU Labor data misses
EU escapes recession
Nikkei -0.76% Dax -0.23%
UST 10Y 1.85%
Oil $56/bbl
Gold $1467/oz
BTCUSD $8646

Europe and Asia:
AUD AU Labor data -19K vs. 16K eyed
GBP UK Retail Sales -0.1 vs. 0.2%
EUR GE GDP 0.1% vs. -0.1%

North America:
USD PPI 8:30

The Australian dollar was the biggest mover in the FX market overnight after labor data from Down Under missed badly suggesting that RBA will have to cut rates further in order to stabilize the economy.

Australian jobs contracted by -19K versus a forecast if 16K gain for the first time in more than a year as the global slowdown and continuing tensions between US and China are finally taking their toll on demand.

Boosted by services and tourism the Australian economy has been able to remain relatively robust up to now despite the fall-off in industrial demand from China, but today data clearly shows that the weakness is finally permeating the system suggesting that RBA will need to resume monetary stimulus to keep the economy stable.

Aussie tumbled below the .6800 figure in overnight trade and remains heavy as North American session is about to start and could see even further weakness if US equities turn south.

In North American today the data calendar is light with only US PPI on the docket and the second-day testimony of Chairman Powell and direction in FX will likely be driven by equity flows which remain near record highs but are starting to show signs of exhaustion. If the profit-taking in stocks begins in earnest, risk FX is sure to follow.

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