My previous signal on 11^th July produced a nicely profitable long trade from the bullish rejection by an hourly pin bar of the support level identified at $0.6755.
 

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%
• Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6755, $0.6765, or $0.6771.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6732, $0.6721, or $0.6703.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast one week ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking bullish, and was likely to bounce from the area at $0.6755 which was new support and confluent with the big round number at $0.6750.

This was a great call as the price did shoot up from that price area, although it gave up much of its early gain intraday.

The technical picture is a bit different this week, as we saw quite strong selling of this currency pair earlier this week, triggered by a strong US Dollar and a selloff in stock markets.

However, the price seems to have printed not only a bullish double bottom at $0.6721, but also higher stairstep support at $0.6731, so the price looks likely to move higher over the short term.

Despite this bullish factor, it is important to note that there is strong resistance overhead at three nearby levels, with the closest, $0.6755, confluent with the quarter-number at $0.6750.

I therefore expect that any opportunities long or short will be best treated as scalp trades, as the price is likely to chop around in this area over the coming days. I have no directional bias, and would take a trade in either direction today.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm London time.

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