A Look Ahead To 2021

I joined Ben Lichtenstein, host of the morning futures program at TDAmeritrade. It is in the futures market that I began my career, and where I gained respect for local traders, who do not have a large institutional backing such as a bank or hedge fund, and are trading their own capital, and taking the risk often from those institutional participants. There is truly a David vs. Goliath drama being played out with asymmetries of information and depth of capital resources. I learned the lesson again in my nearly 15 years at Brown Brothers, the last of the partnership banks, were having skin in the game was a source of pride, confidence, and prudence.  

I have found less tunnel vision in the futures market and more willingness to look across the capital and commodity markets than in the banks, where turfs and fiefdoms often dominate the organization. Ben epitomizes this characteristic and can move easily between financials, commodities, currencies, fundamentals, and technicals. 

We began by talking about the new stimulus and appropriations bill that was just signed by President Trump. The stimulus was a compromise, and the Democratic Party wants more, and this is in part why the Georgia senatorial elections early next month are so important. Still, I am mortified that our representatives had a few hours to digest the 5000+ page appropriations bill before voting on it. This is a fairly common practice, and it is both the cause and effect of our dysfunctional political system.  

While reiterating my dollar bearish outlook for 2021, I suggest that an upside dollar correction into the first part of next year is possible. It is oversold technically, and the fiscal stimulus will underscore the growth differentials that favor the US early next year. I also worry that the virus is out of control in both the US and Europe, but the US has rolled out the vaccine quicker, and Europe may have not ordered sufficient amounts of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  

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Read more by Marc on his site Marc to Market.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are solely of the author’s, based on current ...

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