Crypto Chartbook: Bitcoin, Eighty Percent Rule-based

Our market participation process is over 80% rule-based. These rules are defined to the smallest detail. This scrutiny is necessary so that the mind does not access intuitive decisions in principle wrong in a counterintuitive environment under stress. Stress situations are always inherently present in the market. Either you are stressed not knowing the answer to a question since you do not have a rule, or you get time squeezed towards an entry, or exit since your action (pressing a button) is just a millisecond, but time is ticking. Bitcoin, eighty percent rule-based.

In short, what to do and when to do it is leveraged since you make a sizeable money bet, and your typical resource for such stress (e.g. intuition) is not just worthless but the worst choice in a counterintuitive environment. In addition, we use a tool called “the daily call” to plan ahead. The daily call is a strategy planning outside trading hours to gauge the market and lay strict rules of “what not to do” to reduce losing trades.

It is these refined rule structures and plans that allow us to always stay calm when Bitcoin trades with its volatility nerve-racking around turning points for the unprepared. We see little alternative to catch important low-risk entry points for long-term trades like the one coming up right now for this digital currency.

BTC-USD, Daily Chart, What happened since last week?

(Click on image to enlarge)

Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 29th, 2021.

Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 29th, 2021.

Opportunities are plentiful when it comes to Bitcoin. Which makes this sequenced rule-based behavior especially necessary. Our last weekly chartbook publication posted the chart above (left side with grey background). Less than 48 hours after publication, the assumed scenario manifested. It was this precise planning that allowed us an entry at US$29,176.3. We took half of the position off at US$31,804.3. Therefore, eliminated risk and locked in some partial profits (see our quad strategy). This trading method allowed for stress-free observation of the quick retest of lows following with wiggle room for the stop level. It isn’t clear if this was the ultimate turning point in this sideways zone that Bitcoin is trading right now. More likely than not, one of our efforts grabbing the lows of this range might succeed. If not, income-producing partial profit-taking pays for our efforts.

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Disclaimer: All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Florian Grummes & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Grummes’s ...

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