Consumer Price Index: January Headline & Core At 1.4%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.40%, up from 1.36% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.41%, down from 1.62% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 7.4 percent in January and accounting for most of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. Although the indexes for electricity and natural gas declined, the energy index rose 3.5 percent over the month. The food index rose slightly in January, increasing 0.1 percent as an advance in the index for food away from home more than offset a decline in the index for food at home.

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in January. The indexes for apparel, medical care, shelter, and motor vehicle insurance all increased over the month. The indexes for recreation, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and new vehicles all declined in January.

The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending January, the same increase as for the period ending in December. The index for all items less food and energy also rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, a smaller increase than the 1.6-percent rise for the 12 months ending December. The food index rose 3.8 percent over the last 12 months. In contrast to these increases, and despite rising in recent months, the energy index declined 3.6 percent over the last year. Read more

Investing.com was looking for a 0.3% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.5% for Headline and 1.5% for Core.

The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Headline and Core CPI since 2000

The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.

Headline and Core CPI

In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.

Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is now at the PCE target range of 2 percent.

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