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Consumer Confidence numbers came in last week at 101.8. Still well below the pre-COVID highs (-18.6% year over year) but a sharp increase over the prior month (84.8).

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In fact, if we look back at the Month over Month change in Consumer Confidence over the last 25 years, I find only 4 other instances where we saw a +20% increase:

May 2003, April 2009, May 2009, November 2011.

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The monthly chart of the S&P 500 above highlights each month such an event took place. Coincidentally, they all occurred new key swing lows in the market and the S&P 500 was higher over the proceeding months and years.

This doesn’t mean September 2020’s reading will work out the same. COVID has ruined the traditional fundamental analysis playbooks at the moment. But it is interesting to point out at least.

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ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.4, which was a slight miss of expectations and below last months reading of 56. But still clearly in expansion territory and above the pre-COVID levels.

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ISM Services came out this morning with another solid reading of 57.8, which beat expectations and an increase over the prior month.

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My weighted ISM chart – which takes into account how much each sector makes of the entire economy – now stands at 57.2, which is above last months reading, and the highest number since December 2018.