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Consumer confidence comes in at 100.9, which is a miss on expectations and about 1% lower than the prior month.

The board noted, “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved while expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs. There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high.”

Given the uncertainty in the near term, this should come as no surprise. I think we should expect a softening in the data at least for the next few months.

This week is a chaotic one for earnings. Time permitting I will try to post updates on all the stocks that I currently own. The schedule for this week is:

• Tuesday – AMD, Dexcom, Microsoft, Sherwin Williams
• Wednesday – ETSY, Mastercard, Service Now, Teladoc, Visa
• Thursday – Google, Amazon, Apple, Church & Dwight, Facebook, Shopify

AMD easily beat Wall Street estimates on both revenues and earnings, reporting 56% growth in revenues, and 125% growth in earnings for the quarter. It’s the 4th straight quarter of +25% revenue growth for the company, and they also raised their forward guidance. Gross, Operating, and profit margins all showed year over year improvements as well. The company raised its forward guidance and also announced they were buying XILINX for $35 billion.

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AMD is just crushing it on all levels while Intel struggles. Intel’s manufacturing issues bled into their data center business in the most recent quarter. I’m not willing to write them off just yet, but I’m not going to wait on them either. Hope isn’t an investment strategy. I’m long Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD with no plans to sell.

The above chart shows the stock performance for the last 100 trading days. AMD (blue line) has almost tripled off the March lows and is up 54% in the last 100 days, Nvidia (red line) is up 47% in that same time span, while Intel (green line) is down 27%. The market got it right. Intel (INTC) has now failed to outperform the S&P on the 3, 5, 10, 15 year time horizon.

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The stock currently trades 50x forward earnings and 12x sales. That’s quite pricey even with the stellar results. I see resistance in the $90 level, and the stock is now trading below the 50 day moving average, which makes me lean slightly bearish in the short term as long as price stays below $90.

I see support at the measured move downside target around $67. I would probably add to the position at that level. The next support level is in the $59-60 level, which is technical support and would match the size of the decline during February-March’s market sell off. I would definitely be adding to the position should price get to that level.

Sherwin Williams (SHW) posted a strong beat on earnings and revenues, while raising forward guidance. Earnings grew 25%, while revenues grew 5% for the quarter. The company is benefiting from the strong housing market and people spending more time inside. Gross, Operating, and Profit margins all showed improvements on a year over year basis. Strong quarter all around.

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The stock has more than doubled off the March lows but has been stuck in a trading range for the last month or so. Like AMD, I see some signs of weakness (more like signs of exhaustion after a sharp move higher). I see near term support in the $650-660 range, which matches the $75 point declines the stock has experienced during the run up off the March lows. A failure there would likely send the stock to the $600 level. I would be a buyer if it were to get there. The stock trades 26x forward earnings (compared to the 22x forward earnings of the S&P 500) when most of the companies financial metrics are better than the index. I don’t see it as expensive even at current prices. But after such a run-up, I wouldn’t want to add to a position unless it reached a level I deem to be strong support.

A lot has to do with the direction of the broader market. All we can do is take advantage of the opportunities if they arise.