Whistle Blowers

Whistle-blowing is going global. US activist investor “Muddy Waters” (the pseudonym of Carson Block who began his career revealing the scams among Chinese companies listing in the US) turned his attention to a UK litigation financier, Burford Capital (BRFRY), listed on the London AIM. It was a 9% holding of Woodford Investment Management, run by disgraced manager Neil Woodford whose fund wiped out those who invested in it. Burford lost 50% of its value yesterday after Block revealed that it grossly overstated the value of its loans and returns since 2012 from 4 only cases it brought. “Lex” in the Financial Times called “the most devastating short sale against a UK listed company.”

Lendlease is no longer the policy under which the US helped Britain before Pearl Harbor brought America into World War II. It is now the name of an Australian construction group which also has American Depositary Receipts out. An Australian class action suit by the specialist law firm Maurice Blackburn charges that LLC hid the serious problems of its engineering and services business until last Nov. The result was to cause LLC shares to lose 18% of their value in one day. Moreover the following half year results this Feb. produced further information on losses from this unit of as much as A$500 mn which further cut the share price. The ADR trades as LLESY. I have a personal bone to pick with Lendlease as it is the contractor for a horrible 100-story apartment building being put up around the corner from my home, which locals are suing to block. It will cause problems for all utilities, parking, and schools in my neighborhood.

Britain faces a constitutional crisis. At the Edinburgh “Fringe Festival”, no less, Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell, a self-proclaimed Marxist, said his party would back a second referendum on Scottish independence and a no-confidence vote in Parliament if the Tory government tries for a no-deal Brexit. He would send Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, to Buckingham Palace to persuade the Queen to call another referendum about leaving the European Union. This the Scots voted massively against the last time along with Londoners and the Welsh.

That could create a constitutional crisis for Britain if PM Boris Johnson refuses to resign after he loses a Commons vote of confidence for Britain to exit without an EU agreement. At issue is whether losing a vote of confidence against a no-deal Brexit means that the Queen can decide to sack the PM. Under the rules, Boris Johnson would be the one to advise Her Majesty on what to do under a precedent going back to the English 1640 Civil War against the absolutist monarchy of Charles I. Listening to the ministers was then upheld by Queen Anne in 1708 over a measure regarding the same bit of her realm, Scotland.

The theory calls for a 14 day attempt by the current ruling party (with a 1-vote majority thanks to the Northern Irish Democratic Union Party) to form a new administration. If it cannot agree, there has to be another general election, whose timing depends on the Prime Minister in place, Boris Johnson. PM BoJo could say the will of the people was for an immediate exit—but this is only true of England, not of the rest of the realm, as both Scotland and Wales voted to remain. He can wait months should he think this would help his party.

Does BoJo have a mandate for a crash out? He would try for a vote to leave and then go to the polls after the Hallowe'en deadline. Opposing it, Labour could force another general election and a new referendum over leaving on the country if it could join up with the Scottish Nationalists to win votes. This would move of the country toward a hard-left foreign policy with its taint of anti-Semitism.

Or a rump Labour group rejecting Corbynism could form a more moderate coalition with the Liberal Democrats who oppose Brexit. It would be lovely if the monarch could swing things that way, but it appears to be against the rules.

The immediate consequence of this imbroglio will be a further drop in sterling, according to a Reuters poll of forex experts, to $1.17-1.2.

Today the Philippines became the latest country to chop interest rates. Three gunmen raided Mexico's federal mint and forced guards to let them get to the vault. They escaped with 50 mn pesos worth of gold coins and jewelry. The Mexican bolsa also recovered its mojo yesterday, which may not be related to the raid.

Good Chinese trade growth figures (if you believe them) may help stabilize stock and bond marekts stoday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung more than 600 points between its high and low Weds.

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