Photo by Timothy Newman on Unsplash

Oil prices extended gains today to fresh cycle highs (5-month highs) as the demand/supply/geopolitical-premium balance appears to have shifted.

"Oil benchmarks have been restored to multi-month highs as supply-side risks grab hold of market's attention once more," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity.

"Oil prices were given a bullish impulse at the onset of the week following the attacks on Russian refineries, better-than-expected Chinese economic data, along with Iraq's pledge to lower oil exports," he told MarketWatch.

API

• Crude -1.52mm (+77k exp)
• Cushing
• Gasoline
• Distillates

For the second week in a row crude stockpiles drew-down...

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Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $82.70 ahead of the API report.

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All of which is bad news for Messers Powell and Biden as inflation expectations are on the rise bigly and so are pump prices...

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Source: Bloomberg

Time to blame mom-and-pop gas station managers for their greed.

"Oil's upside could be capped by perceived delays to Fed rate cuts past June," as well as still elevated U.S. crude output, and any further stutters to China's economic recovery, said Han Tan.

Oil bulls could be "given another shot in the arm if the Fed does stick with projections for three 25-basis point rate cuts this year, which should in turn shore up U.S. demand for oil [while] softening the dollar," he said.

However, oil benchmarks "may be prompted to unwind some of its recent gains if the Fed's 'higher-for-longer' narrative [for interest rates] takes stronger hold of global financial markets," he said.

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