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WTI crude’s rise, fueled by supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine, highlights the immediate impact of the storm on US Gulf oil production, but the market’s longer-term outlook remains clouded by demand concerns. The hurricane temporarily shutting down over 42% of crude production in the region has provided some short-term support to prices, but the persistent worries about sluggish demand, especially from key markets like China, are keeping a lid on any sustained rally.

The IEA’s projection of slowing global oil demand growth and potential supply surpluses in 2024 adds to the bearish sentiment, particularly with China’s weakening economy and lower crude imports becoming a focal point. The increase in US oil and fuel inventories last week further underscores the softening demand outlook domestically.

While oil is poised to break a five-week losing streak, the underlying factors suggest that this may be more of a temporary rebound driven by supply issues rather than a sign of a stronger market recovery. Looking ahead, the balance between supply disruptions and ongoing demand concerns will likely continue to influence price movements.

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