Wide Range Wednesday. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kicked off the day with MBA Mortgage Applications and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change (APR) at 7:15 A.M., Treasury Refunding Announcement at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at

9:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 12:00 P.M. and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M.

On the Corn front, the July contract settled at 317 which was 1 ½ of a cent higher in yesterday’s action. However, the current situation with trade and demand offers resistance along with renewed tensions between the U.S. and China over the coronavirus pandemic which are growing hostile. Yesterday’s run in the energy complex did help the July corn settle in the green. We also have had rains that has pushed some rivers in the Midwest to or close to the flood stage. With plantings ahead of schedule, we will be watching as the weather unfolds and see if Mother Nature joins the quarantine party. We also will contend with cooler than normal temperatures and more rains intermediates forecasted extending into nest week. Some states in the Corn Belt are forecasted to go below freezing, hopefully, these states that will be affected are not yet in double-digits in plantings. Mexico bought 109,135 tons of U.S. Corn with 45,220 tons for this marketing year and 63,915 for next marketing year. Investors are also watching exports from Argentina and Brazil as the COVID-19 has devastated feed demand and the ethanol industry. In the overnight electronic session the July corn is currently trading at 317 ¼ which is a ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 318 ¼ to 316 ¾.

On the Ethanol front, the U.S. exported 139.93 million gallons of ethanol and 899,730 metric tons of distillers grains in March, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service yesterday. This was down from February quite a bit from 194.16 million gallons exported. But was close to matching the one-year level of 140 million gallons. Brazil was the number one destination taking use of the corn-based product in the more sugar-based ethanol-producing nation. They seem to be taking advantage of prices for both domestic and exports. The U.S. exported 899,730 tons of distillers grains in March, up from 852,730 tons of exported in February,

But down from the 956,828 tons exported in March 2019. The U.S. exported the ethanol co-product to more than three dozen countries in March with Mexico the top destination with 190,125 metric tons, followed by Vietnam at 139,974 metric tons and South Korea at 127,636 metric tons. The value of U.S. distillers grains exports reached $194.77 million in March, up from $178.24 million in February, but down from $202.65 million in March 2019. Total U.S. distillers grains exports for the first quarter of 2020 reached 2.73 million metric tons at a value of $572.49 million, compared to 2.45 million metric tons at a value of $518.13 million last year. Erin Voegele with Ethanol Producer Magazine contributed the statistics. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The June ethanol settled at 1.047 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.050 and no offers in the early going.

On the Crude Oil front, the market is trying to hold it’s own after the API Energy Stocks showed Cushing, Oklahoma1 million barrels plus what Genscape had forecasted. We could see selling pressure on any strength in the market ahead of the EIA Energy Stocks. With stockpiles filled to the brim, we have nowhere to go except to see potential demand grow as we start to ease out of this global oil glut and pandemic. In the overnight electronic session the July Crude Oil has seen seesaw trade and is currently trading at 2643 which is 6 tics lower. The trading range has been 2798 to 2605.

On the Natural Gas front, the market is giving back the recent premiums it has gained as well. Tomorrow we will have the EIA Gas Storage and we will wait to hear what this story tells. We did see some short-covering as yesterday’s rally ensued, but the bears are not totally out of play. We will see what the market has in store for us ahead of the injection number. In the overnight electronic session the June Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.079 which is 5 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 2.111 to 2.057.

Disclosure: None

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