Warm weather continues to take a heavy toll on the natural gas market, with the long weekend bringing even more changes to the warmer side, enough so that, on a Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) basis, we are now projecting this January to be the 3rd warmest in our historical dataset, behind only 2006 and 1990.

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The pattern has a very "El Niño-like" look, which without any high-latitude blocking leads to warmth across most of the U.S. outside of parts of the South.

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Despite the historically low price environment, it is difficult to avoid moving even lower with a high-level warm pattern in the middle of winter. 

Prompt month prices are currently down in the low $1.90s.

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All the while, we continue to see production well under the highs from late November, which along with stronger weather-adjusted power burns has helped tighten supply-demand balances.

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In a "normal" scenario, this would be increasingly bullish, but this weather pattern is, as shown above, anything but normal, and will continue to rule price action as long as it stays biased strongly to the warmer side of normal.