USDX Resurgence: Don’t Let It Catch You Flat-Footed!

With its negative correlation to the metals, the USDX rally weighed heavily on gold, silver, and stocks. Stop and think: what would be if it continued?

While the overwhelming majority of investors entered 2021 with a bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar, our optimism has proved quite prescient. The USDX bottomed at the beginning of the year. With the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high last week – combined with the EUR/USD, the GDX ETF, the GDXJ ETF, and the price of silver (in terms of the closing prices) hitting new 2021 lows – the ‘pain trade’ has caught many market participants flat-footed. Even silver stocks (the SIL ETF) closed at new yearly lows.

Moreover, after the USD Index surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern and confirmed the breakout above its cup and handle pattern, the combination of new daily and weekly highs is quite a bullish cocktail. Given all that, even if a short-term pullback materializes, the USDX remains poised to challenge ~97.5 - 98 over the medium term — perhaps even over the short term (next several weeks).

Please see below:

Furthermore, as the USD Index seeks higher ground, the euro has fallen off a cliff. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the currency pair’s performance is so important. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the Euro Index has confirmed the breakdown below its bearish head & shoulders pattern, and the ominous event was further validated after the back-test of the breakdown failed and the Euro Index hit a new 2021 low.

Please see below:

Eye In the Sky Doesn’t Lie

What is signaling trouble for dollar bears as well, the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around).

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Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found on the Website represent the analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong ...

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