One of my favorite market calls comes from seeing an alignment between my Dynamic Cycle Analysis (DCA), my proprietary turn dates (FDates), and a couple of standard technical indicators used by many technical traders (MACD, Stochastic, %R, etc.).

But there are times when the DCA is pointing to a likely change of direction in a market, supported by the FDates, but the standard technical indicators have not come to the table just yet.  It is times like this that, based on years of watching the markets more than not follow the cycles and turn dates over standard indicators that I have to make the tough call.

Such a situation is once again upon me, and this is in the Crude Oil futures market.

Based on the DCA and FDates, the POTENTIAL/PROBABILITY of Crude Oil turning down from the 10/16 price high (or 10/17 if late) is very HIGH. 

Fortunately, one does not have to blindly follow such an analysis blindly, and my clients know quite well my philosophy about jumping into a trade simply based on some probability.  Don't do it!

Rather, allow the market to at least "tip its hand" in favor of your expectation.  In other words, if prices move below the 10/16 low without moving above its high, this is what is called a "confirmed daily swing top", or abbreviated DST.  If this were to occur, the market has at least started to demonstrate that the expectation may in fact be correct. It is at this time the trader can plan the trade in expectation of further decline.

And on the off-chance that prices move higher into 10/17, we have one more opportunity with the 10/17 bar.  If it produces the DST, that is acceptable as the deviation is only one trading day, a reasonable amount of time to be off target on such a forecast.  Beyond that, however, all bets are off as far as the cycles are concerned.  The market will do as it pleases, and it has spoken.

So for now, the expectation is for Crude Oil to follow the anticipated cycle pattern and make a top, at least for the short-term, barring any major worldly event (like WW3, terrorist attack, etc.) that tends to exaggerate market moves.