Thursday Precious Metals Report

As gold approached $1350, I felt an accelerated surge higher was possible – if we got the right trigger. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes held that potential. However, instead of thrusting gold higher, prices stalled and slipped back below $1330 by today’s close.

The gaps higher in miners also setup the potential for a hastened upswing with the correct ingredients. In that scenario, I wanted to see GDX close above $24.00 by today. It didn’t happen, and that’s when I decided to raise my stops in NUGT & USLV and position myself in DUST for a possible breakdown.

US DOLLAR- The 20 and 50-period moving averages are crossing over bullishly at 96.09; that is now essential support. Closing below that level would be near-term bearish. Whereas, closing above 96.60 would support an interim pivot low.

GOLD - April gold slipped below the $1330 level, and prices formed a swing high. Progressive closes below the 10-day EMA would support a top. The negatively diverging MACD needed a sudden surge higher to restore the cycles momentum. I felt the best chance for that was after yesterday’s FOMC minutes or perhaps today’s leading economic indicators. Prices finished decisively lower instead and downside follow-through tomorrow would support a top.

SILVER - Prices formed a swing high and closed below the 10-day EMA. Closing below $15.70 tomorrow would support a top.

MINERS 5-MINUTE CHART- One of the main reasons I placed stops on NUGT & USLV today was because of the 5-minute chart of NUGT below. It looked like a descending triangle was forming and a breakdown was likely. For that reason, I placed the afternoon stops and took a position in DUST.

GDX- Prices formed a small swing high, but overall senior miners held up reasonably well. Closing below Tuesday’s gap ($22.43) would signal an exhaustion gap sell. To remain immediately bullish, I wanted to see significant upside follow-through yesterday or today – we didn’t get it.

GDXJ- Junior miners opened the day with a down gap that remains unfilled. To prolong the upside, prices need to close above $34.35. A daily ending below $32.95 would indicate an exhaustion gap sell.

SPY- Stocks are struggling at major resistance near 280. Will prices break through and move to new highs or correct? I think the odds favor a pullback. A sharp breakout from here would likely send gold lower as it would lose safe-haven appeal.

UGAZ- The UGAZ position was up 5% today and finished above the 10-day EMA. Next, I’d like to see a close above the 20-period moving average.

DUST- I didn’t like the action in gold today, especially once it dropped below $1330. I decided to buy DUST in case miners broke sharply lower from the intraday descending triangle. I placed a protective stop below $15.75.

NUGT- I placed a stop (market price) to trigger below $21.72. I needed to see significant upside follow-through higher after Tuesday’s gap to remain committed to more upside – we didn’t get it. I felt protecting the position by raising the stop was appropriate.

USLV- The stop on USLV was placed just below $76.84.

 

Disclosure: None.

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