Oil prices are recovering in slow motion as geo-political risks run high and a slower than expected oil and gas production comeback after Hurricane Francine tore through the Gulf of Mexico. On the flip side, global demand fears are still strong on weak manufacturing data and more fears that China’s economy is slowing. The Fed Meeting is the market highlight this week and should be the driver for the direction of oil prices.  It may keep oil in its slow mode until the Fed does its thing.

Crack spreads still look weak, and hedge funds are piling on to the downside in historic fashion. John Kemp at Reuters wrote that, “Hedge Funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of -54 million barrels in futures and options tied to Brent crude prices over the seven days ending on September 10. For the first time in more than a decade, fund managers had a net short position of -13 million barrels.

Yet the market was rattled after a missile launched by the Houthi rebels hit Isreal. The Houthis claimed it was a ‘hypersonic missile’. Others question whether or not that is true. Regardless, a missile of some type launched by the Houthi rebels hit Israel. Reuters reported that, “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would inflict a “heavy price” on the Iran-aligned Houthis who control northern Yemen, after they reached central Israel with a missile on Sunday for the first time. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the group struck with a new hypersonic ballistic missile that travelled 2,040 km (1270 miles) in just 11 1/2 minutes. An Israeli military official said the missile was hit by an interceptor and fragmented in the air, rather than being completely destroyed.”

Another assassination attempt on President Donald Trump is also raising market concerns.  Fox News reported that the 58-year-old man accused of pointing an AK-47 at former President Donald Trump on Sunday afternoon has a prolific arrest record that spans several decades. Ryan Wesley Routh was arrested shortly after the incident at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Fla. Authorities said Secret Service agents fired at him after seeing the muzzle of his AK-47 pointing through a chain-link fence one hole ahead of where Trump was playing. Authorities are treating the episode as an apparent assassination attempt on Trump.

A background check on the name given by officials, Ryan Wesley Routh, revealed that he currently lives in Hawaii and has faced dozens of run-ins with police, stretching back to at least the 1990s. Routh is a native of North Carolina, where his list of arrests includes simple drug possession, driving without a license, expired inspection and operating a vehicle with no insurance. In addition, the Greensboro News & Record reported in 2002 that Routh was arrested after barricading himself in his roofing company’s office during a three-hour standoff that followed a traffic stop in which he put his hand on a gun before fleeing.

Sometimes we take the ability of the US oil and gas industry ability to bring back oil and gas production quickly after hurricanes for granted. Yet sometimes it can be more challenging. Reuters is reporting that nearly a fifth of crude oil production and 28% of natural gas output in U.S. Gulf of Mexico federal waters remains offline in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said on Sunday.”

Oil may get support from a crackdown on Russian and Iranian crude oil. Bloomberg is reporting that, “Bloomberg News is reporting The UK government is cracking down on an oil trading empire led by Hossein Shamkhani, whose web of firms have drawn scrutiny for helping move Iranian and Russian crude around the world, people familiar with the matter said. Companies House, the country’s corporate register, gave notice on Sept. 3 that London-based Nest Wise Trading Ltd. is to be struck off and dissolved within months if it doesn’t take requisite steps, a filing in its Gazette shows. The threatened action is due to the entity’s failure to provide sufficient information to regulators, who’ve concluded its ultimate beneficial owner is Shamkhani, according to people familiar with the UK’s deliberations.”

Natural gas is at a crossroad. The Gulf of Mexico production is coming back slower than expected and that’s being offset with the fact that we are in the heart of shoulder season and supplies are still above average. Some people have an outlook that is very bullish for this winter as they believe that demand will start cutting into the surplus. On the flip side you have other people who are very negative. Regardless, it’s probably a good time to start pricing in some winter calls.

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