On this first anniversary of the Hamas terror attack on Israeli citizens and the Battle of Lepanto in 1571 that saved Western civilization, oil prices are surging. They are moving on the risk that Israel may attack Iranian oil fields and the risk that Hurricane Milton will become a massive storm that will hit Florida and shut in Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production. This comes as Saudi Arabia raises its selling price of oil to Asia as Chinese stimulus boosts demand. The market is ignoring the return of Libyan oil production as the larger pre-mentioned supply risks exist. For oil and the world, the stakes are high. The market is in a supply deficit the loss of Iranian oil and a depleted US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will leave the world’s global spare production capacity in the hands of OPEC Plus Russia.

After being on pins and needles on Friday oil pulled back after Joe Biden said on Friday that he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel’s shoes, adding he thinks Israel has not yet concluded how to respond to Iran. “The Israelis have not concluded what they are going to do in terms of a strike. That’s under discussion,” Biden said in remarks to reporters at a White House press briefing. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oilfields,” according to Reuters. Yet oil surged on reports that, ‘Rockets fired by Iran-backed Hezbollah hit Israel’s third-largest city, Haifa, early on Monday. Israel, meanwhile, looked poised to expand ground incursions into southern Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza war, which has spread conflict across the Middle East. That spread has raised fears that the United States, Israel’s superpower ally, and arch-foe Iran will be sucked into a wider war according to Reuters.

Saudi Aramco increased the official selling price of its main Arab light crude grade by 90 cents to a premium of $2.20 a barrel against the regional benchmark for buyers in Asia, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. The company was expected to boost the premium by 65 cents a barrel, according to a survey of traders and refiners. At the same time, Aramco cut the price of all grades to the US and Europe.

The volatility in the oil market really surged, it has increased the values of the options dramatically. Going into winter it could start to be a problem for a lot of companies. It’s going to be a problem for the Federal Reserve because for number one job of the Fed is fighting inflation but at the same time a price spike in oil could push the economy into a recession.

Fox Weather is warning that Hurricane Milton could be a monster Cat 4 hurricane. They write, “The first Hurricane Watches were posted for Florida’s west coast on Monday morning as millions of people across the region prepare for life-threatening impacts from Hurricane Milton, such as a potentially deadly storm surge, destructive winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Milton continues to rapidly intensify while it makes its trek over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it reached Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. “There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday,” the NHC said.

EBW Analytics on natural gas wrote that, “the November contract reached the $3.00 psychological level intraday twice last week, but ultimately retreated sharply lower on Friday ahead of the formation of Hurricane Milton—now projected to make landfall Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane near Tampa, Florida.

Both demand destruction from Milton and still-fading October heating demand may further immediate-term consolidation trends. If production readings continue to remain subdued, however, a renewed attempt higher appears possible into the 7–10-day window.

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