Consolidating sharp Monday‘s gains, S&P 500 did OK through the soft landing supportive retail sales, and bonds reliably showed further way. And that was higher – strong 20y Treasury auction tone continued through CBO raising deficit estimates to less than $2T. Similarly to precious metals, stocks had all the reasons to go down to consolidate, but they did not – and the holiday effect worked perfectly as per my predictions.

Today, we got SNB cutting, and the BoE expected to do nothing, which it did. The theme is one of upcoming positive economic surprises bucking the underwhelming trend lately, together with mroe disinflationary data allowing not just the Fed to cut in Sep (the odds of doing nothing are only 34% now). That‘s probably what crude oil alongside not declining copper are trying to say here – whatever increase in core inflation we would get, is to get balanced by the shelter component.

This meaningful chart is clear about where we‘re heading.

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Gold, Silver and Miners

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Precious metals are rewarding composed decision making, with $2,285 and $28.80 spot prices holding, and both metals turning up. $30.50 XAGUSD is already being challenged, following which I‘m looking at beating $31.75 as the real test of silver bulls not losing the rocket fuel. Not that a measured grind higher above this resistance would be an issue, especially if accompanied by strengthening commodities and base metals (should copper clear $4.55, the picture would get even more positive – tentative optimism on the red metal is in place).

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