COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher in reaction to the USDA reports.  Futures made a new high close on the weekly charts.  USDA cut production and ending stocks levels again last week.  The report was considered bullish by the trade and prices rallied.  The weekly export sales report on Thursday showed strong demand for US Cotton once again, and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well.  Lower production will mean tight supplies down the road and the futures market is trying to ration demand through price.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and mostly near normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 76.78 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,631 bales, from 68,631 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8270 and 8540 March.  Support is at 8030, 7960, and 7870 March, with resistance of 8150, 8220 and 8280 March.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little higher with the market still reacting to the reduced Florida production estimates earlier this week from USDA.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops although it has been cold recently.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health.  However, it could turn warm and dry again next week.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will trend to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 121.00, 120.00, and 116.00 March, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 129.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London despite forecasts for good weather in Brazil and Vietnam.  Speculators were the best buyers and appeared to be buying for chart based reasons.  The market is looking ahead to next year and Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Sufficient rains are falling now to support crops.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Some of those crops are starting to hit the market.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.  The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.527 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 117.71 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 132.00, 134.00, and 135.00 March.  Support is at 129.00, 125.00, and 122.00 March, and resistance is at 130.00, 132.00 and 134.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1380 and 1420 March.   Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1390, and 1440 March.

DJ Brazil December Coffee Exports Jumped 38.6% to 4.26 Mln Bags, Cecafe Says 

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports jumped in December as the country produced a record crop of beans in the 2020 growing season.

The South American country exported a record 4.26 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, an increase of 38.6% compared with a year earlier, exporters group Cecafe said Monday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee rose 46.3% to 3.53 million bags, while exports of robusta beans rose 10.1% from December 2019 to 380,699 bags. Exports of roasted and soluble coffee increased 11.3% to 353,084 bags, Cecafe said.

In 2020, Brazil exported a record 44.5 million bags of coffee, up 9.4% from 2019. That included 35.5 million bags of arabica, an increase of 8.4%, a record 4.9 million bags of robusta and a total 4.1 million bags of roasted and soluble coffee, Cecafe said.

Brazil is the world’s biggest grower of coffee, accounting for about one-third of total global production. The country has a two-year coffee-growth cycle, producing bigger crops in even-numbered years and then smaller crops in odd-numbered years as the plants “rest.”

Brazil’s total crop fell 20% in 2019 from 2018 to 49.3 million 132-pound bags, then rose to a record 63.1 million bags in 2020.

Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed sharply higher and both markets have now broken out to the upside.  UNICA released new cane crushing data this week and the crushing rates were sharply lower.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season.  The rains have come late to the region.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.  Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1670 and 1720 March.  Support is at 1630, 1570, and 1540 March, and resistance is at 1670, 1690, and 1720 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 468.00 March.  Support is at 449.00, 444.00, and 439.00 March, and resistance is at 465.00, 468.00, and 471.00 March.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading.  Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages.  Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin.  Origin has ample supplies to sell right now.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US.  Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.  The next grind data is due out over the next couple of weeks.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There is about 100,000 tons ready to ship with no buyers at this time.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.237 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2500, 2460, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2650, 2660, and 2670 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 and 1840 March.  Support is at 1710, 1690, and 1660 March, with resistance at 1750, 1780, and 1820 March.