COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher on follow-through buying tied to the USDA reports. USDA surprised the market on Thursday when it released its monthly supply and demand reports. The reports showed a significant drop in production of US Cotton and much reduced the US ending stocks levels. The reports were bullish and a move to the upper end of the 70 cents range is possible. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand last week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Friday in the Delta. Temperatures should average near to below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 70.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 86,125 bales, from 86,125 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 354 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7490, 7740, and 7930 March. Support is at 7350, 7250, and 7200 March, with resistance of 7470, 7500, and 7530 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on follow-through selling tied to the USDA production report that showed better production of oranges in Florida than had been expected. The weather in Florida remains mostly benign. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers through Thursday, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 112.00 and 110.00 January. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 124.00 January.

Image Source: Pixabay

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets with New York leading the way. Ideas of poor flowering for the Brazil crop and high offer prices from Central America are supporting New York and to a lesser extent London. It has been a weather market and the weather has improved. Vietnam has harvested about a quarter of its projected production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.335 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in the south, with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,592 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 127.00, 130.00, and 135.00 March. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1290 January, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1390 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on improving weather conditions in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane has been affected. Rains are now spreading north to help the cane in those areas. The first half of November crush was down almost 20% from the previous year as cane production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. One could be announced soon according to the newswires. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1320, 1300, and 1240 March. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 381.00, 364.00, and 316.00 March. Support is at 389.00, 381.00, and 376.00 March, and resistance is at 396.00, 401.00, and 406.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower again last week. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. However, it looks like the exchange buying has come to a halt for now. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 909,000 tons, down 0.4% from the previous year.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.962 million bags. ICE said that 1 contract was tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,255 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2450 March, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 March, with resistance at 1790, 1800, and 1830 March.