Softs Report - Tuesday, Aug. 11

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher on short-covering before the USDA reports on Wednesday. Production should be less, but demand could be a lot less. West Texas weather remains detrimental for crop development. Export demand for US Cotton has been poor for the last few weeks. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. Economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,712 bales, from 6,712 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6190, 6080, and 5950 December, with resistance of 6360, 6430 and 6500 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on follow through speculative selling from last week. Trends remain down on the daily charts. The Coronavirus is still around and is still promoting the consumption of FCOJ at home. But, restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 111.00 and 100.00 September. Support is at 109.00, 108.00, and 105.00 September, with resistance at 114.00, 117.00, and 120.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and a little lower in London. Weaker demand seems t be the problem for the market as supply is not all that much bigger. There are renewed concerns about the weather in Vietnam. It was dry during flowering time and is dry again. Production ideas are lower. Vietnam is also reported to be having problems with shipping due to lock downs from the Coronavirus. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabia. Europe is emerging from lock downs. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are much lower today at 1.467 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 110.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 107.00 and 97.00 September. Support is at 110.00, 109.00, and 107.00 September, and resistance is at 117.00, 121.00 and 127.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1430 and 1510 September. Support is at 1350, 1320, and 1310 September, and resistance is at 1430, 1440, and 1460 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed with weakness in the nearby months. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market. Getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifted part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1190 October, and resistance is at 1280, 1310, and 1320 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 369.00, 360.00, and 350.00 October, and resistance is at 380.00, 382.00, and 384.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in correction trading. The US Dollar was stable yesterday but has generally been weaker. The weaker US Dollar has allowed New York to rally as has the news that the West African harvest is now about over. That means less selling pressure from origin. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.963 million bags.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2440, and 2390 September, with resistance at 2560, 2570, and 2580 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1720 September. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1620 September, with resistance at 1720, 1770, and 1800 September.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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