Softs Report - Thursday, Oct. 1

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher in range trading. The weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand, unlike the previous week. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries. Harvest conditions are good right now amid moderate temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions, and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 59.68 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 14,519 bales, from 14,518 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ee for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 20 contracts. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 233,500 bales this year and 20,6—bales next year. Net Pima sales were 19,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6470, 6420, and 6340 December, with resistance of 6620, 6660 and 6680 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher once again despite the good growing conditions seen in Florida so far this year. A stronger Brazilian Real was supportive. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. There are no tropical storms showing right now in the Atlantic for the first time in a whiule. The lack of damaging weather usually means lower prices for futures. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home, but the supplies at grocery stores are good. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Export demand has gone to Brazil due to price and currency relationships. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 119.00 and 121.00 November. Support is at 111.00, 106.00, and 100.00 November, with resistance at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher, with New York the leader on the way up. A rally in the Brazilian Real helped Coffee prices in New York. The market knows it has new Coffee available from Brazil at cheap prices and is going after it. Central America has also stepped up offers as has northern South America. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Vietnam was dry during flowering time and is now getting rains. Production ideas are lower, but conditions have stabilized and so has the production outlook. The Brazil harvest is over. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 1.099 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 108.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 110.00, 108.00, and 107.00 December, and resistance is at 115.00, 119.00 and 120.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1230 November. Support is at 1280, 1260, and 1240 November, and resistance is at 1340, 1370, and 1380 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher on the strength in the Brazilian Real but the fundamentals are still negative. World petroleum prices are weaker. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1280 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1380, and 1410 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 363.00, and 360.00 December, and resistance is at 379.00, 382.00, and 384.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower, but both markers held to their recent trading range. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading to much of West Africa. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.646 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2480, 2430, and 2360 December. Support is at 2520, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2610, 2650, and 2660 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1790, 1680, and 1670 December. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1710 December, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1880 December.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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