Softs Report - Monday, Nov. 23

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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher, but held the recent trading range last week. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes. The rains and winds could have damaged fiber and blown fiber out of the bolls. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand last week. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around, but the recent announcements of vaccines to become available helped support better demand ideas. Ideas are that economic activity will greatly improve once the vaccines become readily available in several months from now. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta could get scattered showers on Sunday and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions except for some scattered showers on Sunday and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 68.07 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 121,046 bales, from 118,394 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7540 and 7870 March. Support is at 7190, 7100, and 7020 March, with resistance of 7230, 7260 and 7290 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again last week and is starting to get close to weekly chart highs. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 130.00 January. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 January, with resistance at 130.00, 131.00, and 134.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher last week in New York, but lower in London. It has been a weather market. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains finally started to end last week as the typhoons seem to have gone away. Central America has seen a couple of hurricanes that could have damaged crops. These systems have now departed the region. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.235 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 111.31 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains. ICE said that 626 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 668 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 115.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 121.00, 124.00 and 128.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1370, 1330, and 1310 January. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1330 January, and resistance is at 1410, 1450, and 1480 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was a little higher and London closed near unchanged. Both markets made new highs for the move. Unsettled Brazil weather has been a problem. It has been dry in south central Brazil and the production of cane has been affected. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1480 and 1420 March. Support is at 1470, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1560, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 408.00 and 340.00 March. Support is at 406.00, 404.00, and 401.00 March, and resistance is at 414.00, 419.00, and 427.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply higher. The move came as importers look to find a way to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.169 million bags. ICE said that 93 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,034 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2650, 2600, and 2580 March, with resistance at 2740, 2770, and 2800 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1790, 1750, and 1720 March, with resistance at 1850, 1860, and 1890 March.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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