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COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher for the week and trends are still up on the daily and the weekly charts. Prices were lower on Friday on what appeared to be speculative profit-taking. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas and the planting of Cotton is being delayed. Some showers are expected in western areas in the next couple of days to help there, but it is still dry overall. It has also been cold which has hurt any early establishment of the crops.

Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers today and tomorrow, then dry conditions and below normal temperatures and the Southeast will get scattered showers this weekend, then dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.25 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8950 May. Support is at 8340, 8200, and 8160 May, with a resistance of 8560, 8660, and 8700 May.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher and continued to break out higher from recent trading ranges on the daily and weekly charts as production of Oranges has been less this year. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around and the increased vaccination pace means that the coronavirus is less. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 116.00 and 136.00 My. Support is at 112.00, 111.00, and 110.00 May, with resistance at 116.00, 120.00, and 122.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: New York closed higher last week even with a big down move on Friday and London closed a little higher. The main fundamental feature to the market is the weather in Brazil and the production prospects in the country. Some cooperatives and the export association are calling for a significant reduction in production with a 30% loss in production potential mentioned. It was dry at flowering time and has been dry again recently. It is also the off-year in the two-year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America after devastating floods early in the growing cycle. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.

Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 1.883 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 120.52 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today with near to above normal temperatures. Scattered showers return over the weekend. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 129.00, 127.00, and 125.00 May, and resistance is at 134.00, 136.00, and 140.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1380, 1410, and 1600 May. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1310 May, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1420 May.

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London closed higher for the week with London turning higher in reversal type trading on the weekly charts. Ideas of stronger Ethanol demand helped support Sugar prices last week as the competition is back for crushing and refining use. Current Sugar demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It is raining in south-central Brazil and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. The region has been dry overall so the rains that have fallen have been very timely. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought-induced yield losses last year. Exports are expected by USDA to be higher in the coming year.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1670 July. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 July, and resistance is at 1660, 1670, and 1700 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 464.00 August. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 442.00 August, and resistance is at 468.00, 469.00, and 476.00 August.

COCOA

General Comments: New York closed higher while London held to a sideways range last week. The main crop harvest is over in West Africa and the mid crop harvest is active. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. That is changing a bit as the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana have given up on their fair wage scheme to try to tax exporters and buyers. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved as pandemic conditions there are much better than in Europe. North American data could also show less grind this time, but probably for the last time as the vaccines are getting distributed and economies are starting to open.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 4.696 million bags. ICE said that 111 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 111 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2510 and 2600 July. Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2400 July, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2570 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1620, 1610, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1690 July.