Softs Report - Friday, June 11

General Comments: Futures were higher in range trading on weather concerns. Trends are still mostly up on the daily charts. USDA released its monthly WASDE updates and the market found the reports a little bearish for a while as prices fell mid-day. However, the potential for reduced production this year kept the market moving higher by the close. The reports highlight a potentially tight ending stocks scenario for the current and the next crop year. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. Some say West Texas is now too wet. It is dry in the southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Delta crop conditions are called good. Cotton demand remains solid although weaker this week. Ideas are that Cotton demand can hold strong after a positive export sales report on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and the Southeast will get scattered to isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 163,737 bales, from 163,737 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8570, 8850, and 10010 July. Support is at 8450, 8360, and 8280 July, with resistance of 8650, 8870, and 9000 July.

selective focus photo of plant

Image Source: Unsplash

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and made new highs for the move. Chart trends are up. The move came despite forecasts from USDA for increased oranges production in Florida. The weather in Florida is good with isolated showers. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. It is dry in Brazil and trees and fruit are stressed. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas. Florida Mutual said that inventories are 15% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 140.00 July. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 July, with resistance at 130.00, 133.00, and 136.00 July.

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